Curious what your thoughts are on the “escalation that Putin turns off” could be? What could he do—or what series of actions could he take—that would be structured that way? Arms sales to the Houthis? Drone shoot-downs? It feels like actual nuclear escalation would not be spigot-able. Surely there would be too much pressure on Trump—even from the hawks in his own camp—at that point to simply look the other way? But would love to know your thoughts.
Good question but as you note, there are too many possibilities. The thing I truly worry about is “tactical” nuclear use. Nobody would really be ready for it, it would breach the unthinkable, and I can imagine Putin thinking people would be so shocked that nobody wouldn’t retaliate with nuclear use...in that case, he would effectively get away with it and Trump assuming office would provide the cover. I hope to god that scenario doesn’t come about, but the conditions at the moment are favorable toward it. What Europeans think is politically impossible Trump thinks is a Tuesday. As you say though, he could ramp up support for Houthis or Iran or maybe missile strikes against a NATO member...the possibilities for escalation are endless.
Thanks much for the reply and that all makes sense. If Putin favors a big response I too fear a nuclear shot, but I wonder if that “shock” factor is simply too much for even Trump to bear, and therefore too much for Putin to risk. For instance, I think the entire US electorate would be both outraged and scared shitless, and living in this country, I find that brand of fear often translates to a desire for violence. I suspect even Trumpers would be calling for a response that Putin would find intolerable, and thus the calculus just doesn’t work for him. But maybe that’s wishful thinking.
Ok, I was more than ready for these Dumpster Fire segments. Thanks for this.
Curious what your thoughts are on the “escalation that Putin turns off” could be? What could he do—or what series of actions could he take—that would be structured that way? Arms sales to the Houthis? Drone shoot-downs? It feels like actual nuclear escalation would not be spigot-able. Surely there would be too much pressure on Trump—even from the hawks in his own camp—at that point to simply look the other way? But would love to know your thoughts.
Good question but as you note, there are too many possibilities. The thing I truly worry about is “tactical” nuclear use. Nobody would really be ready for it, it would breach the unthinkable, and I can imagine Putin thinking people would be so shocked that nobody wouldn’t retaliate with nuclear use...in that case, he would effectively get away with it and Trump assuming office would provide the cover. I hope to god that scenario doesn’t come about, but the conditions at the moment are favorable toward it. What Europeans think is politically impossible Trump thinks is a Tuesday. As you say though, he could ramp up support for Houthis or Iran or maybe missile strikes against a NATO member...the possibilities for escalation are endless.
Thanks much for the reply and that all makes sense. If Putin favors a big response I too fear a nuclear shot, but I wonder if that “shock” factor is simply too much for even Trump to bear, and therefore too much for Putin to risk. For instance, I think the entire US electorate would be both outraged and scared shitless, and living in this country, I find that brand of fear often translates to a desire for violence. I suspect even Trumpers would be calling for a response that Putin would find intolerable, and thus the calculus just doesn’t work for him. But maybe that’s wishful thinking.
Edit- well I guess we have our first reply. https://ua.usembassy.gov/mascot-update-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine/