Foreign Policy Matters in Elections

A data-backed plea to anyone who wants to avoid a repeat of 2024

Prior to the disaster of a presidential election this past November, one of the most controversial analytical questions was whether foreign policy affects elections.

Conventional wisdom said no. I’ve always argued, by contrast, that foreign policy does, in fact, affect elections in profound ways but political scientists were measuring the effects the wrong way. And prior to this most recent election, I registered my priors publicly and hard that Biden’s militarism + Gaza would end up being a big negative factor tipping the outcome to Trump.