Iran, Israel, and the US Making a Mockery of the National Security Bro
“Restoring deterrence” is tantamount to saying “Make Deterrence Great Again,” and that just makes no sense.
Consider the following:
The US assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 was supposed to restore deterrence.
The US Navy tried to restore deterrence last year against Houthi Rebels fighting in the Red Sea on behalf of Gaza, making a pretty simple demand that most of the world shared (The Houthi demand: Israel must allow humanitarian aid into Gaza and agree to a ceasefire).1
When Iran launched an attack against Israel in October 2024, it was supposed to restore deterrence.
When Israel launched its illegal bombing campaign against Iran last week, it was part of its crass “mowing the lawn” theory of restoring deterrence.
And when Trump just decided to illegally bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, it was both recommended and commended as a way to restore deterrence.
But when the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, Iran retaliated almost immediately with reprisals against US bases. Several US troops were injured as a direct result of the US decision to illegally use military force against Iran.
The US Navy ended up fighting the Houthis for more than a year, but ended up in what might generously be called a draw…which came at great expense, with stories galore of an extremely unfavorable cost-exchange ratio ($6k drones versus $1 million missiles). The US also lost multiple F-18 fighters ($93 million each) to accidents as part of the fight.
After Iran’s salvo against Israel in October 2024, which was explicitly supposed to restore deterrence after Israel had attacked Iran, Netanyahu reportedly became emboldened because the attacks were mostly unsuccessful. Israel wanted to attack Iran last year in retaliation but the Biden administration—in the context of the election—made them delay their attacks until what we saw last week.
And now, Trump’s bombing campaign against Iran has, predictably enough, led once again to Iranian attacks on US forces, the target being Central Command headquarters at al Udeid air base in Qatar (which should not even exist).
I am known as, among other things, the guy who explains why “restoring deterrence” is not a thing. Because there is no logic to sustain such an argument, and there is no evidentiary track record to support the idea either. It’s a concept with no intellectual rigor underneath it that national security bros started using to justify their belief in the redemptive value of militarized violence.
Yet, our own recent history suggests that talk of restoring deterrence is simply chauvinist rhetoric obscuring a real argument. At best, it is sane-washing militarism. Or as a smart national security bro would describe it, “Actually, these are instances of compellence, not deterrence—a category error.” Thanks, bro.