Manufacturing Chinese Consent
On the sources of CCP legitimacy and why anyone should care.
This is not meant as a diss to Paul Krugman, but I frequently see him making an astute observation that could be the basis for a much deeper analysis of root causes about politics and power. Yet, he typically stops his inquiry abruptly before that can happen.
The latest example of Krugman in this mode is the following insight from his newsletter:
news from China, whose government has just announced that the economy grew at a surprisingly strong 5.4% in the fourth quarter. This brings growth for 2024 as a whole to 5%, exactly matching the government’s target.
What a coincidence.
As far as I can tell, most serious China experts aren’t asking themselves why China’s economy grew 5.4%. They are, instead, asking why Chinese officials chose to announce growth at that rate. It’s widely believed, at least among people I talk to, that China routinely overstates its economic growth.
I sometimes enjoy reading Krugman, who, in the above post, wends his way through some very agreeable criticisms that the CCP lies about its national growth rate—or at least jukes the stats. But he doesn’t really go further than that.
The question, and the missed opportunity, is why China stresses GDP growth so much that it feels the need to manipulate growth statistics—and not just this year but generally.