To Be A China Hawk...
Promoting bad vibes and dubious analysis, all the way down.
“Diplomatic engagement is a threat.”
“MAGA is isolationist.”
“America must ‘balance’ Chinese power.”
“Cold War 2 is already happening and we must win it.”
“Trump was a China dove and Obama’s pivot to Asia was ‘largely rhetorical.’”
These are just a few of the very real assertions frequently bandied about by China hawks. All of them, in fact, appear in a single recent post by pundit Noah Smith, an econ guy who has become known the past few years primarily for taking a very hawkish turn on China policy.
But every single proposition he makes here is false.
There is, of course, a chasm between how I see Asia, China, and American power compared with how folks like Noah Smith or John Bolton see these things. But on this occasion, I’d like to try something other than harangue or mock, because while everyone knows I think such sentiments are wild-eyed and irresponsible, you deserve a little explanation (or perhaps reminder) of why.
In this post, let me take each of the concrete propositions one at a time. You can then decide whether I’m giving them a fair shake. In a subsequent post, I’ll address the meta-arguments dealing with the nature of the China “problem,” which also rest on dubious grounds.