What’s This War About, Anyway?
With the dumbest war in living memory officially popping off, I had to do an impromptu emergency episode of the pod, live from my local beach on the Kapiti Coast. I frame the episode as “five truths,” but I go well beyond what I said in my previous post on the subject.
A few additional critical points that I didn’t address in either the new episode or the previous post.
Time is Always Against the American Way of War
Two factors I look for in collisions of force are cost-exchange ratio and sustainment capacity (magazine depth). The first is highly unfavorable to the US—the US way of war is extremely costly, meaning that time is inherently on the side of its enemies. The second factor, capacity, is harder to judge. The US has no more than 10 days of munitions before it has to siphon from its Asia stockpiles, everyone knows it, and it’s why senior Pentagon officials advised against this war. The US simply doesn’t have the capacity to continue the war without quagmire-level boots on the ground.
So Iran wins the cost-exchange ratio but who wins the capacity battle? It’s harder to say because Iran too has limited capacity without foreign support. The best estimate I’ve read of Iranian capacity to continue the war is 50-60 days, which would mean “they” win (not clear who “they” is at this point, especially since the real goal of the war, as I explain in the latest episode of the pod, is state collapse, not regime change).
One of the chief contradictions of American empire, which I can expound on further another day if there’s appetite for it, is between the way the US fights and necessity of the US always fighting. The US struggles to win military conflicts by any meaningful measure, yet it’s the most war-prone actor in the international system. And yet, if you’re going to be a country always at war it would make sense to fight efficiently, in low-cost ways, but the American way of war is the opposite, which is also why the US spends more on the military than any country in the world by a wide margin. All of this nonsense should haunt you with the question of who actually benefits from this kind of war-addled existence.
Europe is Its Own Worst Enemy
Europe is about to become one of the biggest patrons of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Europe is famous for its exposure to energy shortages. The initial reports are that prices of LNG are about to increase between 50% and 130%, and it could get much worse if combat does end soon. What that means practically is that Europe will have to seek out Russian oil and gas for at least as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which could be a long-ass time if I’m right that the whole point is for Israel to induce a civil war in Iran.
So the Europe that’s condemning Iran and siding with America’s illegal war is the same Europe that subsidizes the Russian war on Ukraine. That self-same Europe is also using Russia as its “pacing threat” to justify military buildups that in turn justify austerity. Brilliant strategy, guys. Next you’ll tell me that France is going to stockpile more nukes, just because, you know, vibes. Oh wait, that’s actually happening too.
Imperial Decline is Embarrassing
American humiliation is happening in real-time as we discover the US is far less capable and has far less resolve than DC elites assume. That humiliation is a price paid for believing in the illusion of American primacy in a world that has clearly become multipolar. My years-long arguments about the emergence of a multipolar world is real shit with consequences, not an abstract thing. It’s playing out right now.
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